Civil unrest stalling Hong Kong’s housing market over the coming year

RICS-Spacious report indicates continuous decline in prices, sales volumes and rents

HONG KONG, CHINA - Media OutReach - 19 September 2019 - Amidst trade tensions between China and the U.S., Hong Kong's political unrest has continued to dampen market sentiment. According to the newly published RICS-Spacious Hong Kong Residential Market Survey, Confidence Index continues to fall from -54 in July to -76 in August.

The survey also indicates that both buyer and rental demands have reported significant deterioration, with rental demand recording its first negative reading in the survey's history.

During the most intense period of protests, nearly 70% of respondents have cited some degree of price decline over the past three months. Prices, sales volumes and rents are expected to dwindle in the near-term.

Aggregate prices are expected to fall 4.6% across Hong Kong, sales volumes are seen slipping 5.3% and rents 2.5%. The market outlook prediction seems to be a significant reversal since June, where survey contributors anticipated an increase on all three of these metrics.

"Participants also commented that a cessation of the protests appears to be unlikely in the near-term, which contributed to the more subdued medium-term outlook for the market", said the report's author Sean Ellison, RICS Senior Economist for Asia-Pacific. Ellison also states that "some survey respondents cited tariff escalation between China and the U.S. as a headwind, the ongoing political unrest continues to be the main catalyst cited as driving market pessimism."

Although the current market sentiment is similar to when trade tensions escalated and when interest rates were expected to increase in October 2018 and February 2016 reports respectively, a clear resolution to the city's unrest is proving to be elusive.

The RICS-Spacious Hong Kong Residential Property Monitor is a monthly sentiment index tracking trends in the commercial property market. It is a leading indicator for global investment and occupier markets. The full report is available at www.rics.org/economics.

About RICS

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RICS promotes and enforces the highest professional qualifications and standards in the development and management of land, real estate, construction and infrastructure. Our name promises the consistent delivery of standards -- bringing confidence to the markets we serve.

We accredit 125,000 professionals and any individual or firm registered with RICS is subject to our quality assurance. Their expertise covers property, asset valuation, real estate management; the development of infrastructure; and the management of natural resources, such as mining, farms and woodland. From environmental assessments and building controls to negotiating land rights in an emerging economy; if our members are involved the same professional standards and ethics apply.

We believe that standards underpin effective markets. With up to seventy per cent of the world's wealth bound up in land and real estate, our sector is vital to economic development, helping to support stable, sustainable investment and growth around the globe.

With offices covering the major political and financial centres of the world, our market presence means we are ideally placed to influence policy and embed professional standards. We work at a cross-governmental level, delivering international standards that will support a safe and vibrant marketplace in land, real estate, construction and infrastructure, for the benefit of all.

We are proud of our reputation and work hard to protect it, so clients who work with an RICS professional can have confidence in the quality and ethics of the services they receive.

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